Bitcoin halvings usually raise prices. People think this happens because miners receive fewer new coins, making Bitcoin scarcer. However, new research says this might not be true anymore.
Jasper De Maere, who studies Bitcoin at Outlier Ventures, disagrees with the old idea. He says more people are holding onto their Bitcoin for a long time. This means less BTC is available to buy and sell.
De Maere thinks this change could stop prices from increasing like they used to after halvings. With less Bitcoin being traded, the usual rules about supply and demand might work differently.
New information backs up what De Maere is saying. After the 2024 Bitcoin halving, prices went down by 8%. This is very different from what happened before. In 2016, prices went up by 10% after the halving.
De Maere points out that halvings don’t affect the market as much now. A lot more BTC is being traded these days, so the smaller rewards for miners matter less.
Some people still think the halving will raise prices. They say that even if people hold onto their Bitcoin, having less new Bitcoin will still make it more valuable.
Bitcoin Halving Debate: Long-Term Holding vs. Market Impact
The main argument is how the growing amount of Bitcoin not being traded affects the market. More BTC is sitting in long-term wallets, and less is available for trading. This might change how prices move after a halving.
Recent data shows the 2024 Bitcoin halving had the worst price performance ever. This is a significant change from past halvings. De Maere says the smaller block rewards now barely impact the market because BTC trading has grown so much over the years.
On the other hand, some experts still believe the halving cut in new BTC will create scarcity and drive prices up. They think the basic idea of reduced supply will still push prices higher, even if many BTC is held long-term.
It has yet to be determined what will happen to Bitcoin’s price. As the next halving gets closer, people are arguing about whether prices will increase like before or do something different this time. With record-high levels of BTC not being traded, experts can’t agree on what will happen to the price.
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